Sa kabila ng bahagyang pagtaas ng coronavirus infections (COVID-19) sa Metro Manila, sinabi ng independent research group na OCTA na hindi pa nito naobserbahan ang “solid” na upward trend.
“In early December, it (reproduction number) was at 0.33. That’s the lowest reproduction rate we’ve seen in NCR (National Capital Region). But so far, it is at 0.85. In fact, last week, it was at 0.44. It almost doubled compared to last week. But we have to put it in context that the reproduction number is still less than 1. That’s what’s important. The trend is not yet a solid upward trend,” ani OCTA research fellow Dr. Guido David sa naganap na Laging Handa public briefing nitong Lunes, Disyembre 27.
Aniya pa, “The ADAR (average daily attack rate or incidence rate) in NCR is still less than 1, at 0.82. It is less than 1 so it is still okay. (Meanwhile), the positivity rate slightly increased to 1.4 percent."
Ang reproduction number ay tumutukoy sa average na bilang ng secondary infections ng bawat nahawang indibidwal habang ang positivity rate ay tumutukoy sa bilang ng mga indibidwal na lumabas na positibo mula sa mga nasuri para sa COVID-19.
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“If we compare the figures to the previous December holiday season in 2020, we also had a holiday uptick. So we can’t say right now that it’s Omicron-driven because we also saw the uptick last year. Maybe it’s because of holiday gatherings, so we still need to be doubly careful,” ani David.
Sinabi ng OCTA expert na kailangang maghintay para sa higit pang datos, “marahil pagkatapos ng unang linggo ng Enero,” upang makita ang buong larawan ng sitwasyon.
“In a way, expected the uptick. Last year, the uptick also happened due to the holidays. We can’t say yet that it’s alarming. Let’s wait for more data,” sabi ni David.
“Despite the increase, we’re still at our lowest figure in NCR. Our numbers are better than last year. I don’t think we’re going back to the time when we had to lockdown because we’ve had a lot of people vaccinated now,” dagdag niya pa.
Umapela naman ang eksperto sa publiko na patuloy na obserbahan ang minimum public health protocols upang maiwasan ang paglobo ng COVID-19 infections.
Ellalyn De Vera-Ruiz
